A new ForestPaths study, conducted by the Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMKIFU) at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, a project partner, examines how adaptive policies shape the establishment and management of Protected Areas (PAs) in Europe. By combining institutional modeling with the CRAFTY-Europe land use model, it captures how policies evolve in response to environmental and socio-economic pressures, offering insights into strategies that enhance biodiversity while balancing competing land-use demands. 

Protected Areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global and European efforts to halt biodiversity loss, currently covering 16.1% of land and inland waters worldwide. The EU’s Biodiversity Strategy aims to expand this coverage to 30% by 2030, yet reaching that target requires more than simply designating new areas — it demands policies that deliver real biodiversity outcomes while balancing competing land-use pressures such as agriculture and food production. Traditional modelling approaches often treat PA targets as fixed, overlooking how policies evolve, adapt and interact with other sectors over time. This research takes a more dynamic approach, embedding public policy institutions directly within models of the land system to capture these complex feedbacks.  

This study combines an endogenous institutional modelling framework with the CRAFTY-Europe land use model to explore how adaptive policies for Protected Areas (PAs) emerge and interact with the wider land system. The framework functions as a closed-loop control system, where institutional agents monitor land conditions, assess policy outcomes and continuously adjust their interventions, such as protection measures, subsidies or taxes, using a fuzzy logic controller that mirrors real-world decision-making processes. Within the CRAFTY model, diverse land user agents compete to produce ecosystem services like crops, meat and habitat diversity, responding dynamically to these evolving policy signals. 

Protected Areas are established through three main stages: identifying priority areas, designating new PAs based on habitat diversity and applying management restrictions that influence land use and ecosystem service production. Simulations run under an exploratory scenario cover  European countries, offering insights into how institutional learning, feedbacks and policy adjustments shape biodiversity outcomes, land use patterns and ecosystem resilience over time. 

The study finds that rapid PA expansion delivers stronger conservation outcomes than gradual implementation, achieving higher habitat diversity and faster progress toward geographical protection goals, while reducing long-term disruption to land users. In contrast, slow PA expansion causes ongoing disturbance to farmers and lower overall habitat gains, even if it temporarily reduces meat production. Results also reveal that the timing and predictability of policy interventions are critical: early and decisive establishment of PAs allows land users to adapt more efficiently, avoiding conflicts and productivity losses. These findings underscore that setting clear, time-bound biodiversity goals, rather than focusing solely on surface coverage targets like “30% by 2030”, is essential for maximising ecological and socio-economic benefits. 

Read the full study here.