The European Forest Institute has released a new policy brief on forest disturbance regimes across Europe, based on a study recently published in Science by researchers from the Technical University of Munich and EFI.

The study used a deep learning framework to model future forest disturbance across Europe until 2100. Its projections show that disturbance rates - already at their highest level in at least 170 years in recent decades - could more than double by the end of the century under severe climate scenarios, assuming no major adaptation in forest management.

Wildfires are expected to be the strongest driver of change, while bark beetle outbreaks are projected to intensify in response to rising temperatures and drought. These changes are also expected to alter forest structure, with fewer old forests and more young stands.

The policy brief offers clear recommendations for policymakers. It suggests integrating disturbance risk into forest planning at both European and national levels. It also encourages building early warning and monitoring systems. Supporting the development of diverse, climate-adapted forests is another key point. Finally, it highlights reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the best way to limit future disturbances.

Read the policy brief here.