A study involving ForestPaths researchers projects how climate change will reshape forest fires across Europe. The findings show the damage won't be spread evenly.  

The research combines remote sensing data, climate models, and the European forest resources simulation model EFISCEN-Space. Together, these were used to project burned area and fire-induced tree mortality through the end of the century. The study looks at Spain, Germany, and Sweden, which represent Mediterranean, temperate, and boreal forests respectively.  

Burned area is expected to increase across all three regions. Spain sees the sharpest increase, particularly after 2075 under high-emission scenarios. But actual forest damage should also be taken into account. Temperate forests like Germany's are especially vulnerable. An increase in burned area causes far more damage there than the same increase would in Mediterranean or boreal forests. This is largely because temperate forests carry more standing biomass. Their tree species also haven't evolved the fire-resistant traits common in fire-prone regions. Mediterranean forests suffer the highest absolute damage, due to the larger burned area. But relative to their size, they see less damage per hectare burned, since trees are already fire-adapted and carry less fuel. Sweden's boreal forests are somewhere in between – damage rises roughly in proportion to burned area. 

The authors argue these findings point to an urgent need to include fire and fuel management in forest planning - especially in temperate regions that have historically seen little fire but are becoming more exposed now. Suggested strategies include prescribed burning, fuel breaks, and rethinking deadwood and biodiversity practices. 

 Read the full study.